7 minute read  •  Ultimate Life Changer

Things More Likely Than Winning Lotto

Odds of Catching a Six

You’ve got to be in it to win it they say. But really, what are your actual chances of winning the first division in the Saturday Gold Lotto? Well, the odds of you taking home the first division jackpot are actually one in 8,145,060. Yep, it’s a tall order but you might be lucky… right?

To put those odds into perspective, we’ve put together a list of ‘unlikely events’ that are actually much more likely to happen that seeing your numbers come up. From winning a million-dollar Endeavour Prize home to being struck by lightning, here are just some of the lucky and not-so-lucky things that have more chance of happening than winning the lotto jackpot:

Catching a six at the MCG

Odds: 1 in 90,000

If you’re a cricket fan, sitting in the stands of the Melbourne Cricket Ground on the opening day of the Boxing Day test may well be on your bucket list. Imagine being there to witness one of the batsmen opening up the shoulders and whacking the ball high into the crowd for six. Better still, imagine if you were the one to catch it.

“In your dreams,” you say?

Well, the chances of it happening are probably better than you think. And definitely better than winning the lotto. With the maximum crowd capacity of the MCG just 10,000 shy of 100,000, you have a one in 90,000 chance of being the one to catch it.

If you’re heading to the cricket in Brisbane, your chances of snatching a six in the stands of the Gabba are even better. These days the Gabba seats a crowd of 42,000, but for international cricket matches that capacity is reduced thanks to bigger replay screens, wider sight screens and, of course, a pool deck. That’s good news for us though, because that brings our odds of catching a Dorothy Dix (that’s rhyming slang for six) down to one in 36,000. Sweet.

Winning an Olympic Gold Medal

Odds: 1 in 2.5 million

Photo of track sprinters leaping out of starting blocks
You’ve got a better chance of winning Olympic gold than winning the lotto.

If you’ve always dreamt of having a chunk of Olympic gold hanging around your neck, it’s interesting to know that statistically you have more chance of that than winning lotto. Between the Summer and Winter Olympic games there are roughly 400 gold medals handed out every four years. Assuming that each person would have two shots at going to either the summer or winter Olympics in their lifetime, there will be around 800 medals up for grabs in their sporting career.

With a pool of almost 5 billion potential athletes in the 15-65 age bracket around the globe, that means there’s a one in 2.5 million chance of snagging some Olympic gold. For disabled athletes the odds are good too with, over 600 golds awarded collectively at the Summer and Winter Paralympics.

Unfortunately – or fortunately, depending on how you look at it – skill also has something to do with it. So, if you think you’re in with a shot, you’d better start training. If not, it might just be easier to pick up a ticket in our next prize home lottery.

Finding a five-leaf clover

Odds: 1 in 1,000,000

Photo of clover
Can you spot a five-leaf clover in this photo?

Come on admit it, we’ve all searched for a four-leaf clover at some point, casually at first and then with growing intensity when one doesn’t appear before our eyes. But what about a five-leaf clover?

Well, just like its less endowed, four-leaf sibling, the five-leaf clover is the result of a genetic mutation. And for a five-leaf clover to sprout, it takes a perfect storm of genes, location, soil conditions and moisture.

While still significantly better than winning lotto, your chances of finding a five-leaf specimen is not great at 1,000,000 to one. But don’t despair. Your chances of finding a sufficiently lucky four-leaf clover is much, much better, at a mere 10,000 to one.

On the plus side, if you do find a four or five-leaf clover, the odds of you finding another in the same area are much higher due to the shared conditions and gene pool. While you’re searching, here’s an interesting fact to ponder. Did you know that the four (or five) leaves aren’t actually leaves at all? They are actually leaflets, which together, make a single leaf. So, whether your clover has three, four or even five leaflets, it’s really just a one leaf clover. Sorry.

Having quadruplets

Odds: one in 800,000

Photo of four quadruplet babies
Imagine if all four of these were yours.

If having just one baby is considered a life-changing experience, imagine what having quadruplets would do to life as you know it. Four precious babies to change, feed, care for, and love, all at the same time.

With the odds of quadruplets being naturally conceived sitting at one (or should that be four?) in 800,000, it certainly doesn’t happen every day. But yes, it does happen. What about the chance that they are identical? Well, this is one of the rare times that yes, you are actually more likely to win lotto, with the odds of conceiving a set of identical quadruplets calculated at around one in 13 million.

Being born a ‘Leapling’

Odds: one in 1,461

“Noooo, not February 29!”

If you’re born on the 29th of February, birthdays can be tough. You either only celebrate once every four years, or you have to pick a ‘Plan B’ day to sing ‘Happy Birthday’ instead.

If you’re good at maths, you’ll easily calculate that the odds of being born on February 29 are one in 1,461. However, if maths isn’t your strong point, you’ll just have to take our word for it.

On the bright side, leaplings have eternal youth on their side. Imagine having made 80 trips around the Sun but having celebrated just 20 birthdays.

Being struck by lightning

Odds: 1 in 12,000

Photo of lightning
You have a far greater chance of being struck by lightning than winning Gold Lotto.

Now, at the not-so-lucky end of the rainbow, you also have a far greater chance of being hit by lightning than winning the lotto.

Surprisingly, statistics show the chance of being struck by lightning in your lifetime is only one in 12,000.

But can you guess the most common activity people are doing when they are struck?


So, if you don’t mind throwing a line in from time to time, take this as a timely warning.

For all of us though, there are some simple things we can remember during storm season that will reduce the odds. Most of us know not to shelter under tall trees and structures but, just as importantly, you should also make sure you’re not the tallest thing if you’re in an exposed area.

Experts say that if you can see lightning, or hear thunder, even in the distance, you are already at risk. Amazingly, lightning can strike as far as 16km away from a storm. So, if you’re outside and you see the tell-tale rumbling clouds rolling in, it’s time to take cover indoors.

If you are one of the few that are struck by lightning and survive to tell the tale, you can consider yourself very lucky indeed – go ahead and buy yourself a lottery ticket.

Winning an Endeavour Foundation Prize Home

Odds: 1 in 660,000

It’s exciting to think that the odds of winning an Endeavour prize home, assuming the tickets sell out, is just one in 660,000. That’s pretty good odds for a prize valued at over one million dollars. Check out the amazing home you could win in the next Prize Home lottery.

You can bring the odds of winning this spectacular home down even further by simply purchasing multiple tickets. Buy ten tickets and your odds of winning come down to just one in 66,000.

Of course, there are other ways to increase your chances of winning with Endeavour. If you buy your tickets early, you’ll receive automatic entry into our Early Bird Bonus Prize draw. And if you become a Star Supporter, your odds of winning a prize are even better with two additional Bonus Prize Draws exclusive to Star Supporters. Secure your odds and purchase tickets in the next Prize Home draw now.

Imagine what’s possible

When you purchase lottery tickets from Endeavour Foundation, you help to provide opportunities for people with an intellectual disability to learn life skills, live independently, have a job they love, and be actively involved in their local communities. Find out more about how Endeavour Foundation is helping people with disability to imagine what’s possible.

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